Longshots with a Shot at the Kentucky Derby


The 147th running of the Kentucky Derby took place this Saturday (May 1st ) at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Going off as a short favorite will be Essential Quality. But some experts have already cautioned against laying money on the chalk, and the Kentucky Derby betting trends show that favorites have only won 50% of the time the past decade

The Kentucky Derby odds shows that some longshots have seen their odds move sharply over the past couple weeks.

Chief among the movers is Highly Motivated, who was at +2500 entering April and right before the Kentucky Derby was sitting at +1000. Chad Brown’s colt has the speed and the stamina to pull out a victory if his positioning in post 17 doesn’t disadvantage him too much out of the gate. 

King Fury was another longshot that got some love. He was at +3300 just a few days before the Kentucky Derby, but then was at +2000. The big knock on King Fury is lack of preparation. But the Curlin offspring came back from his recent hiatus with a vengeance, winning the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes by nearly three lengths.

Soup and Sandwich had seen similar odds movement to King Fury, opening at +3300 and then shortening to +2500. Betting on this horse should usually, at the very least, give you some optimism early on. Soup and Sandwich is a frontrunner who figures to be at the head of the race throughout the first half. Some in the prediction game believed he had a chance to hang on the whole way. He is two for three this year and ran a solid second in the Florida Derby. He also was believed to likely not have a ton of competition for the lead in the early portions of the race.