The 157th running of the Belmont Stakes, set for June 7, 2025, promises a dramatic finale to the Triple Crown season. For the second year in a row, the race will be held at Saratoga Race Course while Belmont Park undergoes renovation, and it will be contested at 1¼ miles—matching the Kentucky Derby distance instead of the traditional 1½.
With a $2 million purse at stake, the stage is set for a thrilling showdown, possibly headlined by a rematch between Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and Preakness victor Journalism.
This breakdown explores the key contenders, the implications of the altered distance, and what the early odds reveal about the evolving betting landscape.
The Classic Winners’ Collision Course
The potential centerpiece of the 2025 Belmont Stakes is a clash between the winners of the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Sovereignty, trained by Bill Mott, captured the Kentucky Derby with a commanding finish on a sloppy track.
His connections elected to bypass the Preakness, prioritizing five weeks of rest heading into the Belmont.
Sovereignty’s Strategic Rest
Sovereignty enters the Belmont fresh, having skipped the Preakness by design. Trainer Bill Mott’s focus: longevity and peak condition.
The colt has been training locally at Saratoga, and recent workouts suggest he’s in sharp form. His pedigree—Into Mischief crossed with Crowned, a Bernardini mare—offers a balanced blend of speed and stamina well-suited to the 1¼-mile distance.
With the spotlight on these classic winners, value may be hard to find. Sovereignty is currently projected around 2-1, with Journalism close behind at 5-2. The public’s focus could drive odds even lower, offering limited opportunity for sharp bettors seeking an edge.
Journalism’s Gutsy Preakness
Journalism’s victory in the Preakness was hard-fought, overcoming a bumping incident and rallying from five lengths behind. This performance just 14 days after the Kentucky Derby demonstrated his toughness and closing kick. However, this quick turnaround raises questions about his energy level for another demanding race five weeks after the Derby.
Journalism, runner-up in the Derby and winner of the Preakness, remains a formidable threat. Despite a rough trip at Pimlico, jockey Umberto Rispoli navigated a tight opening to deliver a late surge and claim victory.
Trained by Michael McCarthy and sired by Curlin, Journalism carries a pedigree built for stamina and deep finishes—traits suited to the 1¼-mile Belmont. However, having already contested two intense races in five weeks, the toll of the Triple Crown grind poses a major question. His participation in the Belmont remains unconfirmed. If he lines up, he’s expected to be one of the top betting choices.
With attention centered on Journalism and Sovereignty, longshots like Baeza and Rodriguez offer potential value at projected double-digit odds. For bettors seeking credible upsets, platforms like FanDuel highlight these names as smart alternatives to the usual favorites.
The Spoiler Threat: Baeza and Rodriguez
The spotlight may be on the favorites, but the Belmont has a history of upsets—and this year’s spoiler threat comes with real credentials. Baeza and Rodriguez both bring unique advantages that could disrupt the narrative.
Baeza: A Well-Rested Contender
Baeza enters the Belmont Stakes off a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, where he rallied from 15th to finish just a neck behind Journalism. He also placed second in the Santa Anita Derby, again behind Journalism. Skipping the Preakness gives him a valuable rest advantage heading into the Belmont.
Trained by John Shirreffs, Baeza boasts a pedigree built for classic distances. He’s by McKinzie, a son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, and out of the mare Puca—whose offspring also include 2023 Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont champion Dornoch. A Belmont win would give Puca a second consecutive victory in the race and a third Triple Crown race winner overall.
Rodriguez: Speed and Uncertainty
Rodriguez, trained by Bob Baffert, missed both the Derby and the Preakness due to a foot issue, but has returned to training ahead of the Belmont. He previously showed strong early speed in his win at the Wood Memorial, a performance that put him on many early contender lists.
His layoff introduces uncertainty around current fitness, but Baffert’s track record in major races adds intrigue and potential upside.
4 Other Contenders and Track Dynamics
While the spotlight shines on the top names, the Belmont field includes several other intriguing runners who could shape the race’s outcome
1. Hill Road: Gaining Momentum
Hill Road, trained by Chad Brown, earned his spot with a strong closing win in the Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct, a key Belmont prep. His late kick suggests he’s peaking at the right time, and he profiles as a viable contender for those seeking value.
2. Final Gambit: Tactical and Rested
Trained by Brad Cox, Final Gambit finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby after a win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. He skipped the Preakness and brings consistent tactical speed, though connections may choose to point him elsewhere.
3. Sandman: Questionable Entry, Capable Closer
Sandman, trained by Mark Casse, rebounded from a Derby flop to finish third in the Preakness. While reports indicate he may target the Jim Dandy Stakes instead, NYRA still lists him as a possible Belmont starter.
4. Heart of Honor & Crudo: New Faces to Watch
Heart of Honor, an English-bred colt trained by Jamie Osborne, showed promise in the Preakness after a slow start and has a stamina-rich pedigree well suited for the Belmont’s distance.
Crudo, trained by Todd Pletcher, is a lesser-known name but made waves with a win in the Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness undercard, hinting at untapped potential over longer distances.
With 1¼ miles at Saratoga, the race may now favor horses that blend tactical speed and stamina—rather than deep closers waiting for a late meltdown.
Preparing Your Wagers
As the 2025 Belmont Stakes approaches, potential bettors should weigh the strengths of the rested contenders like Sovereignty and Baeza against the battle-tested resilience of Journalism. The 1 1/4-mile distance at Saratoga will test tactical speed and stamina.
The anticipated public focus on the Derby and Preakness winners may create favorable odds for challengers with strong closing ability and suitable pedigrees. Examining workout reports, pedigree influences, and assessing how each horse handled their previous Triple Crown efforts will be crucial in formulating a wagering strategy for this compelling finale.
