America’s most thrilling horse race will get underway on Saturday, May 3rd. The 151st Kentucky Derby will go off just before seven o’clock local time, and it looks like we will see the full field of 20 runners going for one of the biggest prizes in horse racing. It’s a massive test for trainers and jockeys, not to mention the horses. A tactical battle that means the best horse does not always win. Yet, that usually ups the stakes in terms of drama.
The Run for the Roses is, of course, a huge betting event, one of the biggest in global horse racing. In 2024, over $210 million was wagered on the Derby. What’s notable, too, is that $10 million of that came from Japan, highlighting the international stature of the event. While we don’t know for sure, it is possible that the 2025 event will break that record again.
So, who is in the mix for glory? It’s not always the easiest race to puzzle out as there is quality up and down the card. Below, we break down how the betting is shaping up in the days before the big race:
The Race Favorite
Journalism looks set to be the morning line favorite in the online horse betting markets for the Derby. He won the recent Santa Anita Derby, which is a decent indicator race for success in the big one. He’s also beaten several of the rivals he will face in the Derby. The horse is trained by Michael McCarthy, an Ohio native who has tasted success in American Classics like the Preakness Stakes before. While McCarthy hasn’t won the Derby before, he has worked under hall-of-fame trainers like Todd Pletcher in the past. It feels like his time will come sooner rather than later.
The Chasing Pack
While Journalism takes the top spot in the betting markets, the Derby does not always go to the morning line favorite – far from it. There are several interesting candidates, all of whom have resumes that could easily match up to being a Kentucky Derby winner. Sovereignty, Sandman, Luxor Café, Tappan Street, and Burnham Square are all ranging from 7/1 to 14/1, and it would not be considered a shock if any of them were to cross the line first.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dyCyYWPa8uo?si=ew6eFe6YQ641uzo_" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>The Middle Ground
The standout pair of horses around the 20/1 mark are trained by Bob Baffert. Citizen Bull and Rodriguez, the former a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, both have reasons to like them and reasons to avoid them. Baffert, who is returning to the Derby after a three-year suspension, is a six-time winner of the race, and another victory would give him the outright all-time record. He’s impossible to ignore, and you get the sense that at least one of these two will have an impact on the day.
The Outside Chances
It’s not unheard of to have shock winners of the Derby. Indeed, we can point to Rich Strike and Country House as recent winners with odds greater than 50/1. Chunk of Gold, Flying Mohawk, Publisher, Admire Daytona (Japan) and East Avenue might have a say. It all depends on how the race pans out. Horses can get hampered, leaving openings for others, and there’s always that bit of magic that can happen on Kentucky Derby day. Moreover, consider that the majority of these horses will never have run at Churchill Downs before and won’t be used to the massive crowds of 40,000+, and some will have never raced the distance. That leaves it open that anything can happen.
